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Namibia has been the global focus of energy giants following the play-opening Venus and Graaf discoveries in the Orange Basin in 2022. The subsequent Mopane discovery in mid-2023 and the announcement in early 2025 that the Sagittarius well had encountered a hydrocarbon-bearing reservoir have solidified Namibia’s status as a major hydrocarbon frontier. Of the twelve exploration wells drilled in the basin, nine were declared oil discoveries and only three dry holes — an unprecedented success rate of 75% on a worldwide scale. These developments position Namibia as one of Africa’s most promising new energy frontiers, with far-reaching implications for economic growth, job creation, and long-term industry sustainability
Energy Independence and Industrial Development
While the upstream market is the main focus, there are auxiliary industries in tow. In addition to the rush for offshore exploration stakes, investments are flowing into parallel industries, from coastal properties to local equities and government bonds, as the country heads towards its 2029 first oil target date. This anticipatory atmosphere has spurred local planners to revitalise port, rail, and air cargo infrastructure to meet the growing logistics demands of the offshore. The successful commercialisation of offshore and onshore oil fields could reduce import dependency and position Namibia as an energy-exporting nation.
The presence of major energy players underscores Namibia’s attractiveness as a stable and resource-rich destination. Compared to other oil-producing African nations, Namibia offers political stability, a favourable investment climate, and competitive fiscal policies. That said, immense hydrocarbon potential is often accompanied by an evolving regulatory landscape. While the government initially aimed for a final investment decision in 2025, no FID was taken that year, with decisions on the Venus and Mopane projects now expected in 2026, and first oil still targeted for 2029. While the discoveries indicate no shortage of hydrocarbon volume, some energy companies have encountered a complex subsurface with a high gas-to-oil ratio.
The Regulatory and Licensing Environment
Namibia’s regulatory architecture is undergoing significant reform. On 22 March 2025, President Nandi-Ndaitwah placed the oil and gas industry directly under the Office of the President. By assuming direct oversight, the President seeks to safeguard national wealth and ensure that the benefits which flow from oil and gas resources reach the masses, but a number of key areas require clarification. The Petroleum Affairs Directorate continues to play a pivotal role in day-to-day management, overseeing regulatory functions such as issuing licences, monitoring compliance, and managing petroleum data under the Petroleum Act.
The Petroleum (Exploration and Production) Act and Regulations are under review to ensure they remain relevant and effective, especially following the recent oil discoveries. Based on the State of the Nation Address delivered on 24 April 2025, revisions will include amendments giving effect to presidential oversight. The proposed amendments would transfer certain powers from the Minister to the President and establish a Director-General structure within the new Upstream Petroleum Unit. Well-informed legal counsel will be essential for companies navigating this evolving framework.
The Local Content Drive
With unemployment a national priority, the National Upstream Petroleum Local Content Policy introduced in November 2021 requires companies to prioritise hiring and training local staff and using Namibian suppliers. The policy aims to target phased participation of Namibian labour, goods and services, company ownership and financing along the value chain, and is anticipated to become a key focus area for the President. Its relevant aspects will be incorporated into the revised Petroleum (E&P) Act and Model Petroleum Agreement, and bidders must submit local content plans to obtain exploration and production licences. Authorities expect foreign bidders to contribute to local skills development given that Namibia’s offshore hydrocarbons sector is still in its early stages.
Midstream and Downstream Market
Namibia has no crude oil refining capacity, no gas-to-power or gas-to-liquids facilities, and no associated infrastructure; all refined fuel and gas requirements are met by imports, predominantly from the Middle East, Europe, and Singapore. In the medium to long term, discoveries may spur investment into offshore pipelines, onshore crude oil storage facilities, refineries, and gas-to-power and gas-to-liquids plants. The downstream market in Namibia is N$20 billion-a-year revenue industry and comprises of trading, storing, distribution, wholesale and retail marketing of refined petroleum products. The market is regulated by the Ministry of Mines and Energy and all market participants are licensed and prices of petrol and diesel are regulated. The industry is oligopolistic in nature.
In the short term based on production well to barge/crude oil tanker offshore operations, Government will generate revenue from royalties and taxes under the current upstream legal regime. Similar to the Angolan model, revenue from crude oil could subsidise local pump prices through the National Energy Fund. In the medium to long term offshore pipeline, onshore crude oil storage facilities and refineries may become viable options depending upon volumes and regional offtakers. Such infrastructure will require significant investment, and local volumes are relatively small to justify investment therefore regional offtakers would be critical. Domestic production of oil combined with a domestic refinery and the possibility of gas to power or gas to liquids infrastructure have only become options for Namibia because the upstream market has unlocked these as potentials, but ultimately these ambitions remain subject to
the volumes game, the development challenges associated with extraction and of course the support of Governments
Conclusion
Namibia stands at a defining moment. The comparatively small size of its population compared to estimated reserves means the average citizen stands to gain far more in downstream benefits compared to other, more populous African countries. The successful commercialisation of offshore oil fields could reduce import dependency and position Namibia as an energy-exporting nation, unlocking energy independence and new opportunities in the midstream and downstream sectors. For commercial, energy, and infrastructure practitioners, navigating the intersection of a maturing upstream sector, an evolving regulatory framework, and an assertive local content agenda will demand both technical excellence and a deep understanding of the legal and commercial landscape. With final investment decisions expected in 2026, the window to shape outcomes is open, and it favours those who engage early with both rigour and foresight.
CDH Oil and Gas Team
